Refining the “African Solutions to African Problems” Principle and Preconditions to Promote Continental Integration

From Hope to War:

The two-year civil war between the Ethiopian Federal Government and its allies (including Eritrea) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was Africa’s most significant civil war in recent decades. It was brought to an end in October 2022 through an African Unionled agreement on cessation of hostilities. Although this uneasy peace persists, many of the fundamental issues that fueled the war remain unresolved. Moreover, armed insurgencies in Oromia have intensified, and new armed confrontations have emerged in the Amhara region. Together, these two regions account for nearly two-thirds of Ethiopia’s population.

This descent into conflict was unexpected. Ethiopia had long been seen as an anchor of stability in the often tumultuous Horn of Africa. However, over the past decade, it has grappled with immense challenges like popular dissatisfaction and protests, political instability, and armed insurgencies. The government reshuffle in April 2018, following the resignation of then-Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, triggered national, African, and international hopes toward stability, peace, and constitutional democracy. This change heralded the emergence of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, backed by his Oromo base, as the new center of political gravity. It also signaled the relative sidelining of the TPLF, which had previously been the dominant group within the then-ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). In stark contrast to the EPRDF and TPLF’s rhetorical focus on ethnic identity and ‘revolutionary democracy’, Abiy presented himself as a liberal, pan-Ethiopian, and pan-African crusader. Abiy rode this euphoria in dramatic fashion during a pro-government demonstration in June 2020, draping a green t-shirt – likely echoing the African Union’s all-green flag – that featured Nelson Mandela’s iconic raised fist piercing through the map of Africa.

Under Abiy’s leadership, the Ethiopian government pursued a peace process with Eritrea, in line with a decision of the EPRDF made prior to Abiy’s ascent to the premiership. Abiy further sought to promote closer ties among Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Additionally, under his leadership, Ethiopia implemented the visa-on-arrival policy for all Africans.

In retrospect, the overwhelming optimism was more of an expression of hope for a fundamental shift in the political lexicon and practices in a country straining under social polarization and
fragmentation. This hope was especially poignant in a region plagued by authoritarianism, conflict, and mutual mistrust.

The civil war represented the biggest failure of political imagination and the inability of leaders to forge a new political culture founded on a balance of cooperation and competition. Indeed, despite the painful lessons of the war – and partly because of them – the prospects for democratic politics remain bleak. The gravitational pull of the traditional authoritarian and winner-takes-all politics has proven overwhelmingly dominant. While the African Union (AU) played a role in brokering an end to the war, it largely remains disengaged in challenging the creeping consolidation of authoritarian and personalized politics, endangering to deinstitutionalize the country’s historically cohesive state and bureaucratic structures. Even now, as the Amhara and Oromia regions continue to experience serious conflict and instability, the AU has largely remained quiet, partly because of its preoccupation in other contexts.

Refining the African Solutions to African Problems Mantra

The Ethiopian civil war, as well as the overarching political instability and insecurity located at the heart of African diplomacy, have significantly impacted both the continent’s ability to prevent, manage, and transform conflict and, more importantly, its ambitious goal of continental integration aptly captured in the AU Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.

Notably, the Ethiopian civil war rigorously tested the adage “African solutions to African problems” (ASAP). Despite a continental commitment to the adage, Ethiopia – being one of the continent’s diplomatic powerhouses and home to the AU – managed to circumscribe the AU’s freedom of action to entertain repeated requests from the TPLF and other actors to recognize the threats and facilitate talks to prevent the eruption of conflict. Even after conflict erupted, the AU Chairperson’s premature declaration that the Federal government was taking “legitimate measures” inadvertently tied the AU’s hand in finding a peaceful solution as the situation rapidly deteriorated.

Collectively, this not only undermined the AU’s role but also denied the situation of a trusted diplomatic mediator. This absence became evident when Ethiopia continued to reject what it considered was biased and undue interference from the United States and other Western
countries and international institutions. It was only in August 2021, when the Ethiopian government faced setbacks on the battlefield, that it permitted the AU to appoint a special envoy for the Horn of Africa. While there was an initial reluctance to pursue peace, the realities of warfare and the toll of humanitarian and economic hardships eventually drove the conflicting parties to accept the AU-brokered peaceful end to the conflict in Pretoria, South Africa.

The Ethiopian conflict starkly unraveled the philosophy and practicality of the ASAP mantra. Despite the rhetoric, the adage does not and cannot mean that Africa will go it alone. The continent is not an island, sealed out from the consequences and interests of outside actors. Moreover, internal conflict and instability reverberate globally. The continent currently lacks the economic, diplomatic, and material wherewithal and leverages necessary to build on progress and address the multifaceted problems afflicting its people, from conflict to lack of democratic constitutionalism to poverty to climate change.

Accordingly, it is essential to refine the ASAP concept to emphasize African leadership in addressing prevention, management, and transformation of challenges in Africa rather than implying African exclusivity. Such a refinement would prevent the opportunistic invocation of the adage by incumbents and the powerful to insulate governments and leaders from justified international criticism and action. This will also help the emergence of processes and mechanisms whereby all peace efforts will be channeled with African institutions, notably the AU and relevant Regional Economic Communities.

For the adage to realize its full potential, the AU and its institutions must operate autonomously from member states. This independence necessitates fundamental structural adjustments to the power of the AU Commission in implementing policies and strategies adopted by the relevant organs of the AU. Currently, the AU Commission’s independence, both institutionally and politically, seems compromised by member-state influences. This restraint hampers its ability to critique state leadership, undermining the AU’s credibility. Critics often label the AU as a “Big Mens Club” rather than a union upholding established norms. This critique, in turn, reduces the ASAP adage to perceived pro-government biases, silences during constitutional breaches, power misuse, and authoritarian tendencies.

The Ethiopian conflict strained the ASAP concept, challenging the balance between the Union’s collective intent, the aspirations of powerful member states, and international influence, primarily from the West. The lessons provide a crucial opportunity to refine the ASAP mantra, as well as to prepare the AU for the next step in its evolution toward a genuine engine of African unity and integration and a union of its people.

African Integration

The desire to transform Africa from a geographical reality to socio-political and economic integration has permeated the aspirations of prominent leaders for centuries. Ethiopia and its leaders have been at the forefront of this effort. This drive is tooted partly in Ethiopia’s unique history as one of the only two African countries to successfully resist Western colonization. Beyond this historical significance, Ethiopia’s population size (second largest in Africa with over 120 million people), geography – connected with its neighbors through the umbilical cord of the Nile, and location in the geopolitically strategic region adjacent to the busiest trade routes through the Red Sea and in a historically tumultuous neighborhood that has witnessed the only two successful cases of secession in Africa – make the country an important political hub.

Given its prominence, Ethiopia is undeniably central to the vision and realization of African integration. The onset of the civil war amid African plans to roll out trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the devastation and disruption caused by COVID-19 undermined Ethiopia’s priorities and leadership contribution toward integration. This added
another layer of complexity to the AU’s peace and security dilemmas, whose resources were already overstretched in dealing with multiple crises across the continent rather than integration. In view of Ethiopia’s reputation as a hub of decades of sustained economic growth and poverty alleviation, the war caused a significant dent in the story of African progress and transformation, critical to inspire growth and confidence for foreign investment and trade.

Moreover, Africa’s economic integration is driving momentum as globalization and multilateralism are facing strains, and transactional and zero-sum/competitive dynamics has pronounced the multipolarity and even fragmentation of the global system. The evolving global landscape, marked by increasing fragmentation and the emergence of several big and mid-size countries with significant interest in Africa, has weakened not only the capacity of the continent to address its problems but also fueled the adoption of short-term, self-interested individual measures by states, rather than the quest for a patient and unified African voice.

In this context, a genuine commitment to continental integration requires African states and the AU to improve national and continental outlook through domestic stability and strengthening of African institutions, which is also a prerequisite to enable the continent to shape the nature of the emerging new world. Only an integrated Africa can realistically aim for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2030. Without such unity, individualistic endeavors by African nations will not just hinder progress toward SDGs but, in some cases, might even lead to regression.

Accordingly, the ambition to increase trade and movement of people and accelerate continental integration requires a fundamental rethinking of the idea of state sovereignty toward African solidarity and shared cross-border concern and growth. This necessitates the need for each member state, along with continental and sub-regional organizations, to prioritize peace and security throughout the continent. This shift involves moving from mere early warning to proactive early engagement, and championing African Shared Values, encompassing the rule of law, anti corruption, and democratic constitutionalism. Without a steadfast commitment to these principles, the vision of socio-economic amalgamation is unlikely to materialize. Hence, AU and REC institutions should be equipped with the necessary norms, policies, strategies, mechanisms, tools, and resources to actively monitor, assess and intervene in the implementation of these values.

About the Author

Adem Kassie Abebe (LL.D) currently works as Senior Advisor at International IDEA,. In his role, he supports political dialogue and settlement processes in transitions to peace and democracy, particularly in politically complex and fragile contexts. Adem works in policy advocacy on constitutional democracy; convenes platforms for dialogue; advises and provides technical assistance to high-level decision-makers at national and international levels; and advises and empowers civil society stakeholders across the world.  

In addition to his practical and policy engagements, Adem has edited books and published articles and book chapters in prominent academic journals on comparative constitutional law and practice. He delivers lectures at universities across the world. He has been featured and/or cited in prominent international, African, and Ethiopian outlets (such as Al Jazeera, The Conversation and Foreign Policy, The Economist, and The Guardian); has regularly appeared as a commentator on major global radio and television broadcasters (including the BBC, Al Jazeera, France24). 

Adem serves as Vice President of the African Network of Constitutional Law, on the Executive Committee of the International Association of Constitutional Law, on the Advisory Board of the International Journal of Constitutional Law, on the Advisory Council of the (Bonavero) Institute of Human Rights at Oxford University, and as Extraordinary Lecturer at the University of Pretoria.  He has been invited as a neutral expert (amicus curiae) in prominent court cases, including by the Kenyan Supreme Court and the Ethiopian Council of Constitutional Inquiry.

About Integrate Africa Advisory Services

Integrate Africa Advisory Services (IAAS) is a pan-African consulting firm based in Johannesburg, South Africa. IAAS brings together African experts, strategists, political and policy analysts, researchers, and communicators with high-level government and diplomatic experience, all of whom have unique expertise in African integration. Our diverse expertise provides clients with bespoke advisory, research, and contracting services in African Union laws and policies, peace and security, economic integration, and geopolitical maneuvering.

IAAS’ mission is to prepare and enable Africans, African organizations, pan-African institutions, African Union member states, and international organizations to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and adapt engagement strategies to leverage opportunities and minimize risks associated with African integration.